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January 30, 2010


Since I know you read Overcoming Bias and Less Wrong, you are probably familiar with Philip Tetlock and Robyn Dawes. Their work on the superiority of simple algorithms over expert judgment provides another illustration of how people act as if they have psychic powers when they rely on their personal judgment.

I'm working on not just being less confident, but on taking decisions out of my hands entirely when possible. There is always a temptation to tweak the model to reflect my "special insight" though.

Blake, when you say "working on... being less confident" do you mean being less confident that you are Right or less confident that you know more than some other randomly selected person.

I suspect that much of our feeling of confidence is personal evaluation relative to others' perceived expertise. I think it would be more fruitful to have a measured lack of confidence in "experts" relative to yourself.

ie most people are full of s***

"He has an unusual perception of religion: it seems to him that, despite how much people talk about god, very, very few people actually believe in god... The lens is surprisingly simple, one used by many an economist trying to figure the world out: look to actions, not to testimony.."

As comedian Doug Stanhope says: "Nobody believes in God. Otherwise, why do you wear seat-belts?"

"you will know them by their friuts ?" (if that is the right jesus qout)
show dont tell ?

vice of vain gloory pride ? self regard ?

if its a deadly sin how came so many people are alive...

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